Assessment of Modern Agroclimatic Conditions of the North Caucasus in the Context of Climate Change

Abstract

The North Caucasus region exhibits a high population density and an established industrial and agricultural production. Consequently, investigating the effect of climate change in this area promptly represents a practically significant task. The research aims to evaluate the contemporary change in climate on various landscape types in the North Caucasus region and their influence on agroclimatic conditions. This work establishes a database spanning from 1961 to 2020, focusing on temperature and precipitation data from 28 meteorological stations. Employing statistical and mathematical methods, we processed the data using electronic spreadsheets such as Excel. Our analysis incorporated both traditional methods from climatology and agroclimatology, as well as modern GIS technologies. The analysis unveiled that, on average, the air temperature in the North Caucasus region increased by 0.9°C from 1961 to 2020. Temperature variations varied across different landscape types, with the highest annual air temperature increase occurring in foothills (1.2°C) and the lowest in mountainous landscapes (0.5°C). Additionally, there were increases in the sums of active temperatures above 5, 10, and 15°C. Precipitation, on average, increased by 56 mm, with the most significant rise observed in steppe landscapes (72 mm) and the least in semi-desert and desert landscapes (36 mm). Certain regions show unchanged precipitation levels. The increase in precipitation primarily occurred during the vegetation period, while precipitation during the cold period, conversely, decreased. Exceptions to this pattern were observed in mountainous landscapes, which exhibited an opposite trend. The hydrothermal coefficient of G. Selyaninov, characterizing moisture during the vegetation period, remained within the natural fluctuation range. Our research results affirm that the change in climate in the North Caucasus region has contributed to the improvement of the territory's thermal and humidity conditions. Despite alterations in humidity, the values of moisture indicators persist within the characteristic range for each landscape type. Consequently, conditions conducive to landscape transition and the cultivation of more hygrophillous crops are not discernible.