Changes in the Atmospheric Precipitation Regime in Georgia

Abstract

This study examines long-term changes in the atmospheric precipitation regime in Georgia from 1960 to 2019 under the impact of temperature variations and global warming. Using daily data from 14 meteorological stations, precipitation was classified into four intensity categories: light, moderate, heavy, and very heavy. Changes were evaluated with both the difference method and dynamic norm, also probability distributions and normalized analyses were conducted to evaluate regional and temporal variations. Results indicate the reduction of light precipitation days and a slight increase in very heavy precipitation events, with average annual changes across Georgia about −0.0037 mm/year for light, +0.0001 mm/year for moderate, −0.0006 mm/year for heavy, and +0.0063 mm/year for very heavy precipitation. Regional analysis shows stronger impacts in high-precipitation areas, and polynomial approximations reveal cyclic patterns of precipitation changes. These findings demonstrate that global warming is altering precipitation regimes in Georgia, increasing the frequency of extreme events while reducing the duration of light rainfall, emphasizing the need for rational water management and climate adaptation strategies.