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Title: | Dynamics of the thirty-year moving average values of the air temperature in Tbilisi and St.-Petersburg with 1851 to 2010 and their extrapolation to 2051-2080. |
Authors: | Amiranashvili, A. Chargazia, Kh. Trofimenko, L. A. |
Keywords: | გეოფიზიკა;კლიმატის ცვლილება;კონფერენციის შრომები;ჰაერის ტემპერატურა;ტემპერატურის ცვლილების პროგნოზირება |
Issue Date: | 2015 |
Citation: | International Conference “Applied Ecology: Problems, Innovations”, ICAE-2015. Tbilisi-Batumi, Georgia, ISBN 978-9941-0-7644-2, 7-10 May, 2015, Tbilisi, 2015, pp. 12-16, http://icae-2015.tsu.ge |
Description: | On the basis of 100-years (1907-2006) and 163-years (1850-2012) time-series of observations the analysis of the dynamics of the changeability of the average annual air temperature in Tbilisi and St.- Petersburg was carried out. Prognostic calculations showed that in 2051-2080 the average annual air temperature in Tbilisi is expected 14.0±0.4 ºС (ARIMA) and 14.8±1.4 ºС (EXPERTMODELER) against 13.7 ºС in 1981-2010, while in St.-Petersburg - 6.4±0.4 ºС (ARIMA) and 8.6±4.0 ºС (EXPERTMODELER) against 5.8 ºС in 1981-2010. The comparative analysis of the indicated results with the obtained earlier prognostic estimations of the air temperature in Tbilisi, St.-Petersburg, and also its mean global values is carried out |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/5200 |
Appears in Collections: | სამეცნიერო კონფერენციების მასალები - Материалы научных конференций - Materials of scientific conferences |
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File | Description | Size | Format | |
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Pages 12-16 from PROCEEDINGS_ICAE-2015.pdf | Dynamics of the thirty-year moving average values of the air temperature in Tbilisi and St.-Petersburg with 1851 to 2010 and their | 610.51 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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